If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see slight, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to increase nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

Here’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into three categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

• Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
• The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
• And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally.

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

If you’ve put your move plans on hold due to high rates or prices, it may be time to reassess your numbers. Affordability is improving in 39 of the top 50 markets, according to First American. And that’s the 5th straight month where buying a home has become slightly easier.

Let’s break this down into real dollars, so you can see the difference this could make for you (and your move).

Monthly Payments Are Coming Down

One of the most evident signs of this shift is in monthly payments. The latest data from Redfin shows mortgage payments on a median-priced home are now $283 lower than they were just a few months ago (see graph below):

This kind of monthly savings adds up quickly, totaling nearly $3,400 over the course of a year.

While this isn’t enough to completely change the affordability game overnight, think about it this way. When you’re putting together a homebuying budget, a few hundred dollars could be the difference between being comfortable buying and feeling like money’s a bit tight.

And from a home-search perspective, it could even be enough to change the price point you can look at. According to Redfin:

“A borrower with a $3,000 monthly budget can now afford a $468,000 home, about $22,000 more than in June.”

And that’s a big deal if you haven’t found a home you love in your price range yet. It gives you a little more flexibility to find the one that’s right for you.

Either way, that’s a big win.

What’s Behind the Shift?

Two key factors are working in your favor right now:

• Mortgage rates have eased from their high earlier this year
• Home price growth is slowing in many markets

Both of those things help your bottom line and give you a bit of breathing room if you’re buying a home. As Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE Mortgage Technology, says:

“The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers. We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high . . .”

Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to move up into a bigger house, the shifts happening this year could make your move possible. Connect with a trusted agent or lender to see what your monthly payment would look like at today’s rates.

For you, the savings could be the difference between “not yet” and “let’s go.”

Bottom Line

Affordability is improving in many markets. And that resets the math on your move.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, this is your cue to start looking again. Let’s run the local numbers together so you can get a rough estimate of how much more buying power you may have than you did just a few months ago.

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that it could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year, but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts indicate we could reach the low 6s, or possibly even the high 5s.

And remember, even a small drop can make you feel a change. Even a slight dip can help your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash isn’t in the cards. Thanks to the significant price increases over the last 5 years, even the markets currently experiencing declines are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a significant driver of why some places will see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):

This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Let’s connect if you want to get ready.

There’s a trend taking hold in real estate right now: more buyers are choosing newly built homes. And it’s not just about getting the latest technology or modern floor plans. It’s because they may be able to get a better deal.

Builders are offering serious incentives today, and people are jumping on them. In fact, new home sales just hit their highest level in over two years (see graph below):

Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks

There are more newly built homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And as a buyer, that can help you in two significant ways. It gives you more options to choose from on the market, and it motivates builders to sell their inventory before they build more.

That’s precisely why more buyers are scoring incentives like these:

• Mortgage rate buydowns to shrink your monthly payment
• Price cuts that make homeownership more attainable
• Help with closing costs and even upgrades in some communities

The best part is that many builders are currently offering these perks. According to Zonda, nearly 6 out of 10 new home communities are offering incentives on to-be-built homes. And over 75% are doing the same for quick move-ins, which are homes that are already built and ready to move into. As real estate analyst Nick Gerli explains:

“. . . builders are adjusting to the realities of the current housing market. They’ve cut prices 13 percent from peak, and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns on top of that.”

The key takeaway is that builders are motivated to sell. So, you could snag a lower price and maybe even a lower mortgage rate if you buy new. If you’ve been feeling priced out, these offers might be your way back in.

You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal

Since there are more new homes on the market than usual, that gives you more options than you’ve had in years, whether you’re looking for something turnkey or want to personalize a build, odds are, there’s more available near you than you may realize.

Even though the number of new homes for sale is up throughout the country, there are pockets where you have an even better chance to find a better price. According to Census data, here’s a high-level look at which parts of the country are seeing the most significant boost in newly built homes (see graph below):

Both the South and West have more new homes available, so you may find builders are even more willing to negotiate in these regions.

Just know that this opportunity won’t last forever. Recent data shows builders are slowing down their production efforts. Much of this is to avoid having too many homes for sale. As Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains:

“The slowdown in single-family home building has narrowed the home building pipeline. There are currently 621,000 single-family homes under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level since early 2021 as builders pull back on supply.”

Moving forward, the number of new options may start to shrink as builders focus more on selling what’s already built before they add more. So, the best time in years to buy a new home may actually be right now.

Bottom Line

With builders cutting prices and maybe even helping you score a lower monthly payment, that’s not something to overlook.

If you want to see how active builders are in your target area and what they’re offering, here’s your power move: before you even begin looking, let’s connect.

That way, you have your own agent to help you compare incentives from multiple builders and negotiate on your behalf, making sure you get the best deal possible.

These days, you’re going to want to get your price right when you get ready to sell your house. Honestly, it’s more important than ever. Why? While you may want to list high to see what happens, that’s a plan that can easily backfire, and it’s going to cost you in today’s market.

And the risk isn’t just missing out on offers, it’s missing out on the move you needed to make in the first place.

The Real Pitfall of Overpricing

Many homeowners recall their neighbor’s house selling for a high price a few years ago, and they’re eager to match that figure. The problem is that it was a different market.

Today, there are more homes for sale. Buyers have more options to choose from. They don’t have to get into bidding wars where they offer way over asking to compete. Now they can come in at, or even below, the list price. And if you’re not open to that, they’ll move on. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, explains:

“Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”

But here’s the good news. You still have one significant advantage as a seller. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home values went up by a staggering 54% over the last 5 years. So, even if you compromise just a little bit on your sale price today, odds are you’ll still come out way ahead.

The challenge? Most sellers aren’t thinking about it that way. They’re stuck on what a neighbor got months or years ago – and that’s a costly mistake.

Overpricing Can Stall Your Whole Move

Here’s what happens. A seller lists too high. Buyers stay away. No offers come in. The house sits. And suddenly, that seller is facing a tough decision. Do they cut the price? Stick it out? Or give up altogether?

Unfortunately, a late price cut may not be enough. Buyers often see that as a red flag that something’s wrong with the house. That’s why some sellers are opting to pull their listing off the market entirely.

In a recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), over half of agents (54%) say more homes are being taken off the market than usual.

And the top reasons for that? According to the agents, homeowners didn’t get any offers they felt were fair. The survey from JBREC and KCM explains it like this:

“Sellers holding onto high price expectations is the leading reason they are delisting their homes.”

BrightMLS data backs this up:

“. . . sellers are delisting after having their home on the market and finding they are not getting the price they hoped for.”

It’s more proof that pricing too high does more than turn buyers away; it puts your whole move at risk. Because if no one looks at your home or makes an offer, how are you going to sell it?

The Secret To Making Your Move Happen

If you’re selling to relocate for a job, need more space for your growing family, or have to be closer to your relatives as they age, you can’t afford to get stuck. You need a pricing strategy that helps you move forward – and that starts with the right agent.

The sellers who are winning right now are the ones working with experienced local agents who know the current market and aren’t afraid to have honest conversations about price.

And it’s paying off. In the right price range and condition, homes are still selling fast, sometimes even with multiple offers.

Bottom Line

Pricing your house for today’s market isn’t just about getting it sold. It’s about ensuring your move doesn’t stall before it even starts.

Let’s talk through what buyers are really paying right now in our local area, and how to price your home to match.

If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t relatively that straightforward.

In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.

What the Data Really Shows

While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb of 2020-2022, the extent of the change will vary significantly everywhere.

Examining data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metropolitan areas reveals this trend clearly. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).

The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends vary depending on your location.

One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:

“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”

When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that appears to be flat. However, it doesn’t reveal the whole story, and it’s not what most markets are experiencing today. You deserve more than that.

And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast, just a few years ago. Prices have increased by roughly 50% nationally over the past five years, and even more in some markets experiencing a larger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. Based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts do not project a national decline in the future.

So, what’s actually essential for you to know?

If You’re Buying…

You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.

• In a market where prices are still rising, waiting around could mean paying more in the long run.
• In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.

The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat.

If You’re Selling…

You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you know how to price your house and what you can expect to negotiate.

• In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
• However, if you’re in a market where prices are decreasing, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes even more crucial.

The oversized action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.

The Real Story Is Local

The national averages can provide helpful context for broad trends. However, sometimes you need a local perspective because what’s happening in your zip code may look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, puts it:

“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”

That’s why the most brilliant move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.

They’ll have the data and experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening slightly – and how that could impact your move.

Bottom Line

Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the whole picture.

Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now?

If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.

You want mortgage rates to fall – and they’ve started to. But is it going to last? And how low will they go?

Experts say there’s room for rates to come down even more over the next year. One of the leading indicators to watch is the 10-year Treasury yield. Here’s why.

The Link Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

For over 50 years, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has closely followed the movement of the 10-year treasury yield, which is a widely watched benchmark for long-term interest rates (see graph below):

When the treasury yield climbs, mortgage rates tend to follow. And when the yield falls, mortgage rates typically come down.

It’s been a predictable pattern for over 50 years. So predictable that several experts consider the gap between the two normal. It’s known as the spread, and it typically averages around 1.76 percentage points, or approximately 176 basis points.

The Spread Is Shrinking

Over the past couple of years, though, that spread has been much wider than usual. Why? Think of the spread as a measure of fear in the market. When there’s lingering uncertainty in the economy, the gap widens beyond its usual norm. That’s one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been unusually high over the past few years.

But here’s a sign for optimism. Even though there’s still some lingering uncertainty related to the economy, that spread is starting to shrink as the path forward is becoming clearer (see graph below):

And that opens the door for mortgage rates to come down even more. As a recent article from Redfin explains:

“A lower mortgage spread equals lower mortgage rates. If the spread continues to decline, mortgage rates could fall more than they already have.”

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Expected To Decline

It’s not just the spread, though. The 10-year Treasury yield itself is also forecast to decline in the months ahead. So, when you combine a lower yield with a narrowing spread, you have two key forces potentially pushing mortgage rates down going into next year.

This long-term relationship is a significant reason why experts currently project that mortgage rates will ease, with a slight possibility that they may reach the upper 5s by the end of next year.

Here’s how it works. Take the 10-year treasury yield, which is sitting at about 4.09% at the time this article is being written, and then add the average spread of 1.76%. From there, you’d expect mortgage rates to be around 5.85% (see graph below):

However, remember that all of this can change as the economy shifts. And be aware that there will be ups and downs along the way.

How these dynamics play out will depend on where the economy, the job market, inflation, and more go from here. However, the 2026 outlook is currently expected to be a gradual decline in mortgage rates. And as of now, things are starting to move in the right direction.

Bottom Line

Keeping up with all of these shifts can feel overwhelming. That’s why having an experienced agent or lender on your side matters. They’ll do the heavy lifting for you.

If you want real-time updates on mortgage rates, let’s connect so you have someone to keep you informed and help you plan your next move.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:

“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”

So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:

• More homes to choose from
• Less competition from other buyers
• More time to browse
• Better home prices
• Sellers who are more willing to negotiate

Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. However, the optimal time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on your location. As Realtor.com explains:

“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”

Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas

• Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
• Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
• Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
• Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
• Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
• Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
• Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
• Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
• Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
• Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
• Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
• Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
• Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
• Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
• Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
• Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
• Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
• Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
• Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
• Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
• Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
• Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
• Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
• New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
• Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
• Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
• Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
• Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
• Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
• Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
• Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
• Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
• Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
• Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
• Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
• San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
• San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
• Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
• St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
• Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
• Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
• Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
• Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18

What the Experts Are Saying

And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:

“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”

Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:

“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”

And NerdWallet says:

“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”

How To Get Ready for this Golden Window

To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to provide you with more information on your market’s peak time, explain why it’s beneficial for you, and outline the steps you’ll need to take to prepare.

Bottom Line

If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a clever play.

Want help lining up your strategy?Let’ss have a quick conversation so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.